The Prediction Market Mirage: 78% Probability of War and the Hidden Failure Modes
78% probability of an Iranian attack by July 22, 2026. The prediction market...
Prediction Markets
•
KaiWhale
•
2026-07-26
#uma
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Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$79,302
+0.13%
ETH
Ethereum
$2,502.94
+0.43%
SOL
Solana
$104.89
+0.46%
BNB
BNB Chain
$704.7
-0.20%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.42
-0.31%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0868
-0.97%
ADA
Cardano
$0.2082
-1.42%
AVAX
Avalanche
$7.39
-0.57%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8665
-0.72%
LINK
Chainlink
$11.74
-0.22%
Fear & Greed
73
Greed
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202615
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Altseason Index
41
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Tag Hub
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$79,302 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$2,502.94 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$104.89 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$704.7 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.42 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0868 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.2082 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$7.39 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8665 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$11.74 |
🐋 Whale Tracker
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In
2,134.58 BTC
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50,484 SOL
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1,916,115 USDC
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Arbitrage Bot
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61%
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78%
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Institutional Custody
+$0.8M
89%