The Numbers Don't Lie: Public Companies Absorbed Twice the Bitcoin Mining Output in H1 2025

Hook

166,984 BTC. That is the net purchase figure from public companies tracked by BTCTreasuries for the first half of 2025. In the same period, miners produced 81,153 BTC. Simple arithmetic: corporate demand outpaced new supply by a factor of two. This is not a narrative. It is a ledger.

I have seen this movie before. In 2020, when MicroStrategy started its buying spree, the market dismissed it as a one-off. Then it became a parade. Now, the numbers are so lopsided that even the most skeptical quant must pause. The question is not whether institutions are buying – they are. The question is what happens when the music stops.

Volatility is just noise waiting to be priced.

Context

BTCTreasuries is a public database tracking Bitcoin holdings of publicly traded companies, ETFs, and countries. It is not perfect – it misses private funds, family offices, and unreported over-the-counter (OTC) trades. But for the subset it covers, the data is auditable. The H1 2025 report dropped two weeks ago, and the headline is stark: net purchases by this cohort hit 166,984 BTC, while the post-halving mining reward schedule delivered only 81,153 fresh coins.

To understand why this matters, you need to recalibrate your mental model of Bitcoin's supply side. The fourth halving (April 2024) cut the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. At a hashrate of ~600 EH/s, miners face razor-thin margins. Their operational costs – electricity, hardware, debt service – force them to sell a significant portion of their production. Historically, that selling pressure was absorbed by retail and speculators on exchanges. Now, a new class of buyer has emerged: corporate treasuries.

The buying is not random. Companies like MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital, and Semler Scientific have publicly stated that Bitcoin is a strategic reserve asset. They borrow cheap, buy Bitcoin, and hold. This is a structural shift from speculative flow to balance-sheet allocation.

Core

Let me break down the order flow mechanics.

First, the supply: 81,153 BTC from miners in six months translates to roughly 13,525 BTC per month. That is a tiny fraction of daily trading volume on centralized exchanges (often 500,000 BTC per day). But mining supply is not the only supply. There is also the overhang of existing holders – those who bought in 2021 and are now underwater, or long-term holders who take profits.

Second, the demand: 166,984 BTC from public companies alone. But this is net. Gross purchases were likely much higher. Some of those companies also sold – for tax-loss harvesting, rebalancing, or liquidity needs. The fact that the net is still double the mining output suggests gross buying is in the range of 250,000–300,000 BTC. That is a serious bid.

Now, consider the timing. H1 2025 included the aftermath of the spot ETF approvals (January 2024) and the halving. The ETFs themselves accumulated over 200,000 BTC in their first six months. Combined with public company buying, the institutional absorption of Bitcoin is now running at a rate that exceeds new issuance by a wide margin.

This creates a compound effect. As the available floating supply shrinks, each incremental buy order moves the price higher. That attracts more attention, more capital, and more buying. It is a feedback loop that crypto natives call a “supply squeeze.”

But I do not trade on feelings. I trade on volatility surfaces. Look at Bitcoin’s implied volatility term structure. Since March 2025, the short-dated (1-month) IV has been compressing, while the long-dated (6-month) IV has been rising. That inversion signals that the market is pricing in a high-probability event – possibly a liquidity shock. When everyone expects a squeeze, the squeeze often fails to materialize. But when no one expects it, that is when the floor shatters.

The floor is a suggestion, not a law.

Contrarian

Every crypto Twitter influencer is celebrating this data as the ultimate proof of adoption. “Institutions are buying more than miners can produce – bullish forever.” That is the retail narrative. It is lazy.

Here is what they miss. Public companies are not altruistic. They buy Bitcoin to enhance shareholder value – or to inflate their stock price. MicroStrategy’s MSTR trades at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings because the market prices in the “leverage effect” of its convertible bond strategy. But if the premium collapses, or if the company faces a margin call (yes, some of their debt is collateralized), they will sell. And they will sell into the same thin order books they helped drain.

Moreover, the BTCTreasuries data is backward-looking. It covers H1 2025. We are now in Q3 2025. Have those companies continued buying? Some have not. Marathon Digital sold a portion of its holdings in July to fund expansion. If the net turns negative in Q3, the narrative flips instantly.

Smart money is front-running the data. They are selling OTC blocks to public companies before the purchases are disclosed. The price action in July and early August 2025 has been range-bound between $68,000 and $75,000. That is not a squeeze. That is distribution. The volume is declining, and the open interest in Bitcoin futures is dropping. The institutions may have already taken their positions, and now the market is waiting for the next catalyst.

Retail sees a 2x coverage ratio and thinks “buy.” I see a potential liquidity cliff. If the buying stops, the only bid left is from miners and retail. And miners are forced sellers. The imbalance can reverse quickly.

Chaos is just data with no label yet.

Takeaway

The H1 2025 data is a powerful confirmation of structural demand, but it is a lagging indicator. The real question is forward-looking: can institutional buying sustain this pace for the next six months? My analysis suggests not. The ETF inflows have slowed since July. Public company earnings pressure will mount in Q4. And the macroeconomic environment (higher for longer rates) is a headwind for risk assets.

Here is my actionable view. Monitor the BTCTreasuries net purchase numbers monthly. If the August or September data shows a net decline, that will be the first warning. Also watch the Bitcoin futures basis – if it falls below 5% (annualized), it means leverage is unwinding. That is the signal to hedge.

I am not buying at these levels. I am selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium, expecting the price to stay below $85,000. If it drops to $60,000, I will roll. If it breaks above $85,000, I will adjust. Because in this market, the difference between conviction and capitulation is just one bad trade.

"I don't trade on hope. I trade on math."